I just returned from the American Political Science Association's annual meeting, and what I heard left me more depressed--and angrier--about this insane war than I was before I went.

At a roundtable on our situation in Iraq, we heard from the kinds of experts the administration should have heeded before invading: James Wirtz, of the Naval Postgraduate School, Juan Cole from the University of Michigan, Stephen Biddle from the Council on Foreign Relations, John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, and Andrew Dorman of Kings College, London.

A quick summary of the panel's message came from the first speaker: "It's absolutely amazing how many so-called 'experts' didn't see what a shit-hole Iraq would be."

One by one, the panelists--who seemed in substantial agreement with one another--discussed the options for withdrawal, and one by one, they explained the likely unpleasant consequences of each. One option virtually invites Iran to dominate the region; another makes mass murder very likely; still another does great harm to America's strategic interests. Better training of Iraqi troops? That will simply make them better at killing each other. Staying the course? Less than a one in ten liklihood of success--whatever success means at this point. (I've noticed that as Bush continues to insist we can succeed, he also manages to avoid describing what he thinks such success would look like.) And even if we wanted to take on those odds, we can't stay past next April because our volunteer Army simply lacks the capacity.

And while we are in Iraq, our ability to address other threats to American security is significantly (one hopes not fatally) compromised.

Perhaps the most depressing analysis of all? Both Republicans and Democrats have powerful incentives not to end the war. The Republicans are seeking to avoid blame; the Democrats are seeking to avoid the charge that they 'stabbed the troops in the back' by leaving. The military wants to avoid a "loss," although again, no one seems able to describe a "win."

So the young men and women continue to kill and die...to avoid bruising egos, and to allow the Administration to stall for time while its self-important, morally and strategically deficient members try to choose the least awful course of action from a list that doesn't have any good choices.

Me, I drank more than usual this weekend.

Sheila Suess Kennedy's blog | login or register to post comments